A Grim Statistical History
As the 2023 Stanley Cup Final unfolds, the historical odds are heavily stacked against any team finding themselves in a 3-0 deficit. Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have historically won 27 out of 28 series. The sole exception dates back to 1942, when the Toronto Maple Leafs orchestrated a miraculous comeback to defeat the Detroit Red Wings.
In these 28 series, a staggering 20 ended in sweeps. The Florida Panthers, finding themselves in a commanding position, are on the brink of their first sweep in the Stanley Cup Final since the Detroit Red Wings decimated the Washington Capitals in four straight games in 1998.
Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to extend the series with a Game 4 win, history is not on their side. Out of those 28 series, 25 ended in no more than five games. Despite these daunting odds, the Oilers still cling to belief.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers entered the series with hope but have stumbled against the Panthers, going 0-5-0 this season. Their recent performance in Game 3 was particularly telling. Despite a late surge that saw goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod to cut Florida's lead to 4-3, they found themselves entering the third period down 4-1—a deficit difficult to overcome, especially on home ice in a must-win game.
The pivotal stretch came during a disastrous 6:19 spell in the second period when the Panthers netted three quick goals. Initially, Warren Foegele provided a spark for Edmonton with a breakaway goal to tie the game 1-1. However, their momentum quickly evaporated. A turnover by goaltender Stuart Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to set up Vladimir Tarasenko, putting Florida ahead 2-1 and deflating the home crowd at 9:12.
Florida struck again at 13:57, with Matthew Tkachuk's aggressive forechecking leading to a Darnell Nurse turnover that Sam Bennett capitalized on for his seventh goal of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring frenzy at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 opportunity that originated deep within Edmonton's attacking zone, setting the score at 4-1.
The Stars Fail to Shine
Errors have mounted for the Oilers, while their top players have struggled to find the net. Despite goals from Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm, the Oilers' leading scorers—including Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have been uncharacteristically silent.
These five players are integral to Edmonton's powerhouse power play, which has been neutralized by Florida's flawless penalty kill, going 10-for-10 in the series. The Oilers' power play had entered the series clicking at over 37%, the best in the postseason.
While McDavid has managed to tally assists on three of Edmonton's four goals, his teammates have yet to make a significant impact. McDavid is on pace to become just the second player since 1967-68 to have a point on at least half of his team's goals in the postseason, a feat only achieved by Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. Meanwhile, the others have yet to register a point in the Final.
Taking Responsibility
Emotions are running high in the Oilers' camp. "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," Draisaitl confessed.
The team's struggles were summarized by Draisaitl as well: "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of."
Goaltender Stuart Skinner echoed the frustration but also expressed hope, saying, "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Coach Kris Knoblauch remains optimistic: "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
Knoblauch also emphasized the team's resilience: "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Reflecting on the game, Skinner acknowledged the team's missteps: "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Despite the uphill battle, Draisaitl remains focused on the task at hand. "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."