The NBA Rookie of the Year (ROY) award has long been a milestone for the league's brightest new talent. Historically, the award often goes to the rookie who tops the scoring charts, and this trend has held steady with half of the last 10 winners leading all rookies in points. Notably, top performers often come from high draft picks, with half of the past 16 recipients being No. 1 overall selections. In fact, the majority of winners in recent years were selected within the top five picks, with notable exceptions such as Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon who have proved that talent can emerge from outside the higher slots.
One interesting aspect over the years has been the performance of big men in securing the ROY accolade. Since 2003, only four big men—Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and the much-anticipated Victor Wembanyama—have clinched the award. This statistic underscores the predominance of guards and wings in rookie success stories.
The 2024 Draft Class: Lower Expectations
The 2024 draft class is widely regarded as one of the least promising in NBA history. The consensus among scouts is that the top two picks do not play the guard position and are viewed largely as long-term projects. This shifts the spotlight to the guards selected this year, specifically Reed Sheppard, the highest-picked guard.
Reed Sheppard is expected to bring much-needed shooting to Houston’s backcourt. "They badly need his shooting," noted an observer, underlining the team’s reliance on his ability to contribute from beyond the arc. However, Sheppard will face stiff competition for minutes, making his path to stardom anything but straightforward.
Other guards in this year’s rookie class also face uphill battles. Stephon Castle, who had a measly 26.7% shooting percentage from three-point range at UConn, and Ron Holland, with a 23.9% success rate from beyond the arc in the G-League, need significant improvement to make an impact. Alex Sarr managed to shoot just 19.1% from the floor during Summer League, which further clouds his prospects.
Big Men and Their Challenges
On the other end of the spectrum, big men like Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan will have their own set of challenges. Edey is relatively certain to start for the Grizzlies and is expected to model his game on Jonas Valanciunas. Conversely, Clingan is buried in the depth chart behind Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III in Portland, making it difficult for him to log significant playing time.
Tough Competition and Limited Opportunities
Rookies this year are also contending with stiff competition within their respective teams. Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels, for instance, are vying for minutes against fellow rookie Zaccharie Risacher on Trae Young’s squad. Similarly, Isaiah Collier faces the challenge of competing with established guards Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson.
Meanwhile, Dalton Knecht’s minutes on the Lakers are likely to be limited by the presence of experienced players like Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell. The scenario isn't any easier for rookies who didn't come into the league with much fanfare. Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr., though they received votes from outside the lottery last season, did not seriously contend for the top rookie honor.
The Washington Dilemma
The Wizards' Kyshawn George faces a unique set of challenges. With limited playmaking support, Washington's setup is far from ideal for his growth. "Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up," remarked a seasoned analyst, emphasizing the hurdles George must overcome to find his rhythm.
In sum, the 2024 NBA rookie class appears to be up against formidable challenges, both from within and outside their teams. With the backdrop of a historically weaker draft class, the journey to the Rookie of the Year award will be an uphill battle for most of these young players. The league's scouts and fans will be keenly watching as these rookies strive to defy expectations and carve their niche in the NBA.