After a rough mid-July, the San Diego Padres are experiencing a resurgence, proving they’re a formidable team as the season progresses. Following a loss on July 19 that left the Padres with a 50-50 record, the team has since surged to a 62-52 standing, now occupying the top wild-card spot in the National League (NL).
In Command of the Wild-Card Race
The Padres’ recent surge places them at the forefront of the wild-card race, yet they face fierce competition. While they trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by four games in the NL West, the Arizona Diamondbacks are nipping at their heels, just a half-game behind. The heat is on as the Padres push to maintain their standing.
Post All-Star Break Dominance
Since the All-Star break, the Padres have been a team on a mission, boasting a 12-3 record accompanied by an impressive +42 run differential. Key players have stepped up, delivering outstanding performances. Outfielder Manny Machado has been on a tear, hitting .347 with five doubles, four home runs, and nine RBI in his last 12 games. Equally impressive, Xander Bogaerts is batting .420 with a .551 slugging percentage since July 12.
Jurickson Profar has also been pivotal to the Padres’ offensive success, posting a remarkable .993 OPS, including five home runs and 12 RBI while scoring 13 runs in 15 games since the break. Jackson Merrill has contributed a .309 average with 10 RBI and seven doubles since mid-July, further solidifying the team’s offensive prowess.
Stellar Pitching Anchors Success
The Padres’ starting rotation has been equally impressive, showing resilience and skill in the season's second half. Padres starters have combined for an 8-2 record with a 2.61 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Standout performances include Dylan Cease, who boasts a minuscule 0.31 ERA with 38 strikeouts in his last five starts, and Michael King, who has posted a 1.76 ERA over his previous five outings. Additionally, Martin Perez made an immediate impact with his new team, allowing just one run in six innings while striking out seven in his debut start.
Padres relievers have also been a crucial component of the team’s recent success. Since the All-Star break, they’ve maintained a commendable 2.96 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP, amassing 67 strikeouts across 54 2/3 innings. Robert Suarez, in particular, has been spotless since July 5, while Jason Adam has pitched three scoreless innings since joining the Padres. Tanner Scott, despite allowing a home run in his initial outing, has struck out four in 2 1/3 innings.
Injuries and Recoveries
On the injury front, Fernando Tatis Jr. has been sidelined since June with a stress reaction in his femur, a significant absence for the Padres. However, there is optimism surrounding Joe Musgrove's return. Musgrove recently threw 41 pitches in his rehab assignment on Sunday, and Padres manager Mike Shildt indicated there is a "high probability" that Musgrove's next start will be with the big-league club.
Looking Ahead
With their remaining opponents possessing a collective winning percentage of .481, the Padres have a favorable schedule ahead. Projections indicate the Padres have an 80.2% chance of making the playoffs. However, the odds of capturing the NL West division title remain slim, as various projections give the Padres around a 15% chance or lower (SportsLine at 15.5%, FanGraphs at 14.5%, and PECOTA at 6.6%).
As the Padres continue their push toward the postseason, their combination of hot bats, solid pitching, and a relatively favorable schedule sets the stage for an intriguing remainder of the season. Fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see if this team can maintain its momentum and secure a place in October baseball.